What to make of the Ransacking of Federal Departments by Musk, new Tariffs, and the nonresistance of the Democrats.

In a series of political developments that are as significant for world affairs as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States in the process of a coup. The Administrative State is being destroyed. The consequences will be profound, and relate to the re-organization of American Power at home and abroad.

Tentatively supported by the US president, the coup is lead by South African Oligarch Elon Musk, and carried out by young lieutenants loyal to him. Lieutenants? These ideologically driven young extremists (young, dumb & full of ‘enthusiasm’) are attempting to push the United States into economic shock-therapy, along the lines of Milei’s Argentina or Yeltsin’s Russian Federation.

Goal #1: cripple and mutilate the US government’s ability to meet its social obligations, to make way for Total Corporate Rule.

An informally organized ring of loyalists that have gained access to the inner-sanctums of Federal Treasury offices and various Departments, seized computer servers and control over records and payments processes, and fired non-compliant Feds. It’s impossible to know exactly what they’re doing, as there is no oversight or accountability process (by design), but its function is to violently disrupt governing capacity, with the goal to consolidate social and economic domination to the multinational corporations that are already monopolizing all aspects of our lives and imposing vicious and economy-wrecking rent-seeking.

(Big thanks to Lambert Strether & Yves Smith of NakedCapitalism.com for providing a mega-rundown of what is happening on this front: read here)

A useful analogy for this DOGE-branded looting would be: ripping the copper wiring out of the walls for personal enrichment… so as to displace the very last vestiges of public, political management over the nation’s wealth. Drive out the careerists and replace them with compliant loyalists (if they can be found). It’s basically a ham-fisted exercise in Continuity of Government protocol, except stupider.

As usual, these unprecedented actives fall into the category of: MOVE FAST AND BREAK THINGS.

Meanwhile:

I’ve warned in past articles that the danger of a Third World War is to be taken seriously, and that there are systemic, material reasons why a Great War of the 21stCentury is highly likely. Unhappily, I concluded that the United States would choose to initiate that Great War as an aggressor, with the Goal to: keep the rest of the World in line, and damn the consequences.

However, after the ascension of Trump II, we’ve witnessed a radical and undeniable change in course for the Hegemon. Which seemingly is to acknowledge America’s relative place within a world composed of many different powerful poles: the acceptance of a multipolar world. In this mindset, America is not longer a shining City on the Hill, or the exceptional/indispensible nation, but one Great Power among many other Great Powers.

The gist of this means: we’re going to withdraw to our own backyard, where we can leverage a maximum advantage. Essentially: get more Imperial Bang for our Buck.

Last month, when the Dems were still technically Large and In Charge, American imperialism meant enabling Greater Israel to exterminate the Palestinians, fighting Russia to the very last Ukrainian, manipulating Taiwan as a cudgel against the People’s Republic of China, further subjugation of the European Union and the Anglo-sphere to neoliberal, anti-democratic management, and attempting to re-start American industrialism using Biden’s war-adjacent Pentagon-subsidy plan, and reining in the very worst impulses of the powerful Tech Industry under Lina Khan’s sharp stewardship of the FTC.

Now, under new vision, the calculus of American power has shifted dramatically:

Peace in Palestine (for now), the cutting of ties to Ukraine with the goal of ending the war (which was always a Biden project, considering his family’s extensive links to that country), the announcement of tariffs on Taiwan(!), NAFTA countries (Canada & Mexico), soon Europe, and the suspension of USAID and the NGO-nexus abroad.

So, lots of things going on, but what is happening in the big picture? What does this re-orientation mean?

Is America becoming less Imperialist? No.

In reality, the Empire is transforming to ‘meet the moment’, and adjusting to the new geopolitical reality.

What we’re seeing is America cutting dead weight, and dropping expensive Imperial maintenance abroad, and shifting towards easier quarry, closer to home. The methods will be equally brutal and sadistic (perhaps more so), as the Empire transitions towards easier, cheaper battles against small victims that can’t defend themselves.

Except, these victims can defend themselves, and the outcome will probably result in wider political and military integration across Central and South America as they realize: together, we stand a chance against America.

A sharp example is Mexico and Canada collaborating to produce retaliatory tariffs. Twenty days ago, this would’ve been unthinkable. Today, it’s the most pragmatic course of action.

The insurgent right-wing of American power has grasped that fighting Russia means America loses*. Fighting China means America loses. Fighting Iran means America loses. The old “enemies” have been growing in strength and cooperation, while the advantages that the United States enjoyed during the 20th Century have passed the nation by. Continuing on the same course of unipolar control is simply too costly.

So, you can see a diabolical logic at work here, but a logic nonetheless. If America is no longer powerful enough to control the world, it should retreat to mitigate damage and expenses, and focus on enslaving its own hemisphere. If America has lost its history-defining unipolar moment, then it’s time to regroup, rally, and find some easier prey to abuse.

Another analogy might be: a Mob Boss who accepts that his gang can’t control the whole city, so he concentrates his resources on shaking down the neighborhood.

*Russia defeated NATO in the 2023 Battle of Zaporizhzhia, the Great Ukrainian Counter-Offensive, where cream of the crop, Euro-trained/American-directed Ukraine battalions and the western-supplied tanks were destroyed in a dreadful, incredible loss of life. Ukraine’s reserves were eliminated, armies destroyed, material lost… which set the perfect stage of the irreversible string of continuous Russian victories the past twelve months. What danger Hubris is! Now, the NATO armories are empty, Ukrainians are resentful, Western audiences exhausted, and peace will be decided on Russia’s terms, who will likely pursue maximal goals.

This geopolitical shift is parallel to the radical changes at home, in the United States. No longer will US largess (soldiers, NGOs, Military Intelligence, soft power) be spread thinly to enforce Liberal Hegemony (Financial Empire) around the world, but rather the violence will be focused more explicitly at home, to break social resistance so that the very remaining wealth can be stolen from the remaining American Middle Class: the cast of Professional Managers, corporate cadres, and administrative-types (the real base of the modern Democrat Party). There is a lot of money still held by this class of people, and that’s money that the American Oligarchs don’t have. So, their power and authority must be liquidated, so that they can be pillaged effectively. This is one objective that Musk & Co is pursuing.

So: why is there no political opposition to these moves? Ehhh…. Good question.

The stunning fact is that there is no resistance or opposition from the opposition party, the Democrats (at this stage).

The Dems are rudderless, and seem to have totally lost morale, and will to resist in any meaningful way (except for saying: “hey, we’re more effective Nazis than the Republicans, they can’t do anything right!”). The formal Dem Party seems to be totally inadequate, incapable, and, frankly, resigned to their personal oblivion (talk about pouting, petulant egos).

(update: Democrat lawmakers did join the battle to keep the Musk-ites from raiding USAID HQ— with underwhelming results… but really, they should just let it die, put yer energy into preserving something good, fer Pete’s Sake)

(further update: this situation is totally chaotic, and it’s not immediately clear, even after combing through relevant journalism, what is happening, exactly — but, hey, what else is new?)

The comparisons just write themselves. But, seriously folks, sometimes it’s okay to make mistakes, like Perestroika! Or, like failing to hold a democratic primary to replace your demented Head of State.

The Democrats have no ideas

Liberal Centrism (1976-2024 RIP) is an ideology exhausted. For decades it was the nice, friendly face on the neoliberal austerity machine… but no longer. It is simply hated by its own registered base. The death of Jimmy Carter was a personification of this death made manifest, it seems.

This much is admitted by them, this befuddlement, and we can glean the rest from the appointment of a new soulless freak to DNC chair (these dumb arseholes haven’t learned a damned thing). The Democrats have not moved beyond their failed attempts to maintain Paternalism over their disintegrated voting base. Why do I think the Democrats are Paternalistic? Their 2016-2024 platform was: “tut-tut, here’s what’s really good for you,” while suppressing the populist and aspirational sections of their own base, and finally burning their political capital by waging visible and cruel wars of annihilation on a civilian population, and pretending they weren’t.

Ultimately, the Democrats have totally delegitimized themselves, and this is a real crisis for them. Even for a cynic like myself, I’m stunned at the precipitous loss of legitimacy in the Party. What the hell do they do next? They don’t know, but everyone else seems to: jettison the party leadership, democratize the Party structure, forget the “rules and guidelines;” use power to make the country better: alleviate poverty, liquidate the Oligarchs, and bring the Finance & Tech industries to heel.

But, as we know, the Democrats aren’t democratic, and won’t listen (prove me wrong?).

The central crisis of the Democrats

It’s setting in that there is no “normal” to return to, and they have no goal for the future. They can’t even imagine the future; like MAGA, the Liberals imagined a return to the storied past, but now that fantasy is over, and they are grieving. Not fighting, but grieving.

Well, suck it up and go to your grave, Democrats. You failed, created the conditions for Trump in the first place, failed to stop him as your only mandated objective, and now want to throw your hands up and say: “the country is just fundamentally bad, or something, who knows! The world just no longer makes sense!”

I would not be surprised if Liberals simply retreat further into their pretensions of moral superiority, and do nothing.

Never forget: the Democrats lost any claim to moral superiority in the mass graves of Gaza, and, just like Khan Yunis, their city-on-a-hill is wreckage.

Jeez, jeez. What does this mean for the future? Will the Democrats revive behind a Social Democrat (like Pritzker or Warren), and hand the wheel over to the new generation? Or will they try again to stuff an empty suit (the ogre Fetterman or kmart-obama Josh Shapiro) into their candidacy, and fail? Guess we’ll see! (If there still is a Democrat party in 2024, or elections…)

As for the nation today…

There is a major contradiction growing within Trump’s ideology: the Republicans still believe in some vague, innate American Power that can be unleashed, and are hedging their bets that economic protectionism will make the country more productive and wealthy. It will not.

The central premise of instituting tariffs is that the world “needs” America, and needs its consumer base, so, by cutting ourselves off, we’re somehow holding them hostage. Wrong, idiot.

The majority of world trade does not involve the United States, and is primarily Asia-on-Asia trade. The gravity of world-economy is between and among China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea etc etc, without ever touching American shores start-to-finish. Why bother with America? Business is simply done elsewhere. America is merely hastening its own economic irrelevance. Seriously, what does the US bring to the table besides financial services and unreliable, overly-expensive war-machines?

Optimistically speaking, the tariffs are also premised on resuscitating American domestic manufacturing. With higher import duties, it makes sense to build things here to dodge the tariff (therefore re-industrializing). Well, yes and no. A Chinese golf cart manufacturer is shifting production to the US for precisely that reason, and probably won’t be the only company to do so. But, industry isn’t all that profitable(compared to, say, torpid rent-seeking), and jump-starting new industrial capacity will take massive infusions of Federal money— and (like our copper wires analogy above) the capacity for future State Monetary Policy seems to be under attack. So, where’s the “incentive” for investors? (manufacturing is mostly self-financed, anyway, through issued stocks; productive industry and finance are like oil and water)

All-in-all, it’s a totally schizophrenic policy that will probably result in nothing but chaos and corruption, with corporations braying for Federal Money while building not much, and doing it inefficiently.

In terms of industrial development, I’m picturing a lot more explicitly State-Corporate bonding-at-the-hip, as the boundaries between multi-national capitalism and the American nation-state slips to zero-distance.

This whole situation just smacks of incompetence and imminent economic peril. Really reminds me of Brexit, except that instead of the UK leaving the Eurozone economy, the US is leaving “its own” world-wide economy. Different path to get there, but it seems like the consequences might be similar.

Tariffs and Money (or, $0$ — Save Our Stocks!)

warning: five dense paragraphs ahead

Tariffs are nothing more than additional taxes that American importers will have to pay to receive goods from abroad — goods, mind you, whose factories were intentionally relocated abroad to save costs (in the 1970s-2000s), and now we’re just giving up on all that… Trump’s not wrong when he says we’re in for pain… prices are going to be haywire, especially for groceries. (Not great news for a poor, layabout bohemian like myself).

Tariffs are easy to apply, hard to reverse. And, they’re kinda weak-tea. The only countries they can hurt-hurt is Mexico, specifically because North America is economically integrated in a similar fashion to the EU: national political borders be damned. “American-built” cars are made in Mexico, Canada, and the US, and some parts of the supply chain pass the border FIVE times before they become a finished car. Plus, Mexico is not going to bend the knee, and will probably retaliate with whatever tools the Glorious Empress Claudia Sheinbaum has at Her disposal. So… what are we even doing here?

But the real problem here is the US Treasury market, and the relevance of the US dollar, which is a critical tool of US dominance abroad… but if America retreats from being abroad, and Trump simultaneously says that countries MUST KEEP USING THE US DOLLAR AS A WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY to trade amongst themselves (or invite retaliation, read: weak-tea tariffs)— there will be an implosion of American buying power and consumer advantage that will create a large expansion of poverty and general immiseration— we can’t readily replace tariffed goods, so the consumer will eat the inflated costs. The Breads & Circuses of consumer economy that neoliberal America is based on will be over. Without a carrot, yet swinging a more terrible stick than ever, the Americans will become eager to revolt. What then? What will Americans do when they can’t get their cheap goodies? I shudder at the thought…

Inflation is when too much money chases too few goods. Climate-related and political turmoil will (continue to) disrupt supply chains. If the wealth of the Middle Class is transferred upwards through rent-seeking and economic monopolies, then aggregate demand for imports will lower as it won’t be worth it for importers to move goods in. A weaker dollar from nations ditching Treasury bonds will weaken the dollar, compounding the issue (am I reading this right? let me know below).

Also, the US debt itself is a reflection of US money in circulation in the world: the world economy and trade grows, the US debt grows. The US Treasury (which Musk & Co have stormed…) can only keep servicing payments on this debt IF US DEBT CONTINUES TO BE PURCHASED FOR USE IN TRADE BY OTHER COUNTRIES, and Saudi Arabia using it’s oil profits to buy US debt (the vaunted petro-dollar). If other countries stop buying dollars (example, trading in their own or a bancor clearing currency), the utility of holding USD will be gone, and the Treasury debt bonds will collapse in value. And by abandoning the Greater American Empire, how will Uncle Sam enforce compliance in dollar usage internationally? It’s a colossal paradox.

The finance industry that gives the US its remaining power will high-tail it to safer waters, probably Singapore or Shanghai. (The real title of this piece should be: Trump Initiates the Chinese Century).

There’s another problem for Trump & Co here: incredibly violent pockets of mafia-like organization that are invested in the survival of US Empire as it previously existed. The CIA, DNI, FBI, and all the spinoff tentacles of the massive, self-sustaining crime-syndicate known collectively as US Military Intelligence, have a lot at stake here: their power, their money, their good name, and their pride. Will they allow this stunning course of action? Unknown.

I can only speculate further, so I will end this line of thought here. But, be aware that future mysterious and catastrophic events might be due to actors accustomed to operating behind the scenes, attempting to assert their interests, mostly through guns, subterfuge, and ultraviolent theatrics. (in other words, the American Years of Lead is a distinct possibility; so don’t be a sucker!)

I do feel safe in predicting that Musk will stick around only as long as he is useful to Trump, and tossed aside after.

And— Trump will back down if sufficient pressure is applied (this was a characteristic of his 2016 presidency). The remarkable thing is that NO PRESSURE IS BEING APPLIED. The Democrats are laying flat. Now, as ever before, the blame is falling squarely on that wretched party which betrayed its own base of working families, students, teachers, young people, and laborers, and believed inanely that it had achieved the “End of History”. I’m beginning to think the Dems really just hate the poor for demanding anything of them, and want them to go away.

Predictions

Here’s my vision of the uncomfortable, dark outcome that I fear on the horizon: The Democrats are “laying-flat” because they view Trump-ism as an acceptable direction for the country (if aesthetically abhorrent), and will enter an under-handed, collaborating relationship with the Trump II regime, selling out the supporters that still held hope in them. It sure is a “path forward” for them.

Maybe the Democrats would feel relieved to be “vanquished.” Seems it’s the only thing they’re good for, is giving up. They’d rather surrender, and fall in line, and go about their political lives in fealty to Power, idly bemoaning their own lost myths, and how they were “back-stabbed by the left”, or whatever. The Dems would rather die than change.

The death-drive is strong in America, today! One can feel it tugging like a magnetic field.

<end rant>

We’re only entering week 3 of the Trump II admin, and experiencing a total and complete global realignment. Good Lord.

Like that old Chinese curse says: “may you live in interesting times.”

So long for now. My output here isn’t as consistent as I’d like, but I’ve got some fun short-story fiction writing cooking behind the scenes, that hopefully will be a welcome respite from the News of the World. I’ll put out a message when they get published.

Thanks for reading, and please help me share this article.

Peace and solidarity,

Liam CZA Noble

Somerville, MA 2025